This is the chart that shows Ability-X ratings on the left, in the order of early speed from highest to lowest. This is usually all of the information that you need to analyze today's race well, and all of the figures are from the horses last race.

If you bear in mind that the rating number, first column on left, always represents the horses run it becomes the easiest way to learn how horses actually run in a race. The "run" number, and the early speed number, considered together and seperately always reveal the horses ability. This is the only thing you need in order to win on purpose at the track.

It is a completely different perspective, but it is the one that you need to win, and it is not the one that the rest of the public have. They have past performance lines that better hide ability then reveal it.

8th - 8.5fD Par 100/90 G1 - The header gives you the distance, and a winners par rating/ES

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

111  13    97    10     208
80    11    96    20    176
56    6      95     15    151 - #6 is the fastest ES, and the overall best/lowest rating
84    4      95     15    179
74    2       95    4      169
61    8      94    5      155 - #8 is 60 pts faster in ES, yet 14 pts lower in run then #12, with more in the stretch then #7
53    9      92    15     145
75    12    91    12    166 - #12 promises more run in the stretch at the same early speed.
39       7    91     6     130 - the "key" is always the lowest rating on the bottom (slow) half.
79      1    91    5      170
103    3    90    20     193
90     10    90    15     180
71      5     88    20     159
103    14    82    8      185

The "key" is often one of the top 4 ML horses, and its rating usually turns out to be pretty good in comparison to the other horses. The lower rating is generally better, and #7, at 39, is the lowest rating we have. But, before a bet can be made, we should think about what the rating tells us about the way this horse runs, the number always reflects the horses run.

We see that "Par" is 100 and that is more then twice what #7 shows at 39. While the Early Speed of 91 is just a little higher then Par, which is 90. The "run par" of 100 represents a good full run at this distance, actually 100/90 is as perfect a balance as you can get for run in the first half and run in the second half of the race.

#3, and #14 are well balanced "par" runners here, but with a purse of $500,000, there are many horses in this race that are much faster early, and can probably outrun that balance. #7 is one of that group, so we should compare from #7 up so that we can get an idea of what the faster horses might do. As it stands, for #7, the ES of 91 is pretty good, but par tells us that the 39 run, might be a little light in the stretch. But, as the "key", #7 becomes the benchmark for comparison since with ES at 91, it is just above par on that, and the best rating of the three horses at that level of speed from their last race. Between #1 and #12, #12 is lower, but offers more run in the stretch then #7. Now we can compare with run of 39, and 75, as we move up to consider faster early.

#8 is the third contender, because it has more early speed while its run rating is only 22 pts higher then #7. #8 promises to be further ahead with some run in the stretch more then #7, and the other horses between it and #7. Then #6 figures to outrun everybody on the front end or the back end since it is the fastest with the lowest rating of 56.

If #6 doesn't need to run as fast as it can early, it will be better able to run late. Because of the relationship between early and late run, #6 is the only horse here that can slow down to 93 early or speed up to 97 early, and have the ability to run 96 late. Par of 100/90 is great balance, #6 has the ability to run with that balance. If #6 runs with all of its speed early, it still has more run then #7, not as much as #12, but #12 doesn't figure to have more speed to put in up front. #6 has the most latitude in how it can run the race for a win.

Handicappers call it tactical speed, I call it speed that the horse can use anywhere it needs to in order to win. It is the edge you need as a bettor, and it is very hard to see in the format of past performances. But, it sticks right out with Ability-X ratings when you know what you need to have a winning advantage.

With an ML of 15-1, it is plain to see that this advantage doesn't show up in "form".

6    Noble's Promise       27.80    13.20     8.20
8    Aikenite                      7.00    5.20
12    Roman Invasion       14.80  / 7 - Make Music for Me /  Superfecta    $1,274.66     6-8-12-7

Horsemen have had over 100 years practice at hiding ability in the format of past performances, and they are pretty good at it. As this, and many other races demonstrate. The other thing that is clearly demonstrated is that past performance handicapping does not work to give you a clear picture of the race. You need to look at the race from the perspective of ability.

You will miss things as you learn to analyze the ratings, but the results will point out what you missed until you don't miss it anymore. It is easy to learn the consistencies, because they will keep happening until you do learn them.

This race is a Turf event, so we can explore the basic difference between the grass surface and dirt or Poly. Turf is seen as a more tiring surface in general, so, normally early speed is not a dominating factor.

8th - 8fT Par 100/85 G3

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

51    3    90     10    141 - #3 has a great rating, likely to go too fast early in this contest. A disadvantage on turf, unless the horse has great speed, and can use it well.
72    5    90    20    162
68    7    88    5    156
42    6     87    3.5  129 - #6 is the lowest rating, and has a bit more speed to call on, most likely in the stretch.
47    2     85    4    132 - #2 is the "key" with a performance right on Par ES last.
69    1    84    4    153
77    8    83    8     160 - #8 is low ES and higher rating, a very consistent closer on grass and dirt.
50    4    78    3     128 - #4 is the slow of the bunch which allows it to capitalize on any "too fast" mistakes.

In comparison to "Par", there are 4 horses at half of par, so we can expect a run of 50 to be competitive here. #6 is the lowest rating at 42, and that rating was produced at an ES just a bit faster then Par ES (85) for this distance and surface. That shows #6, Get Stormy to have the most latitude in its run for this event. This enables the horse to lay back early, and use that speed in the stretch run. That is a great winning advantage, and one that can be bet on heartily.

This shows how the general Par can show the relative class of a field and provide clues to how to how the entrants may lay out a winning run. As you get better and better with the analysis of the Ability-X chart, you will find instances where you could see the horses ability better than the stable did. You will also see that very often, the race will be run according to what the horsemen believe about speed and pace, and that can affect your results.

You will frequently find horses with great early speed, and a run rating that is in range of par at that high ES. The question is, does the trainer believe that the "lead" must be had, and held. Or, is it understood that if the early speed was backed down a little, that would provide more giddyup in the stretch. You may have no idea, but this is what you will be betting on. With Ability-X ratings, you know the risk going in. When you understand this, as a bettor, even when the results don't go your way, you can remain balanced because you know why.

The normal, and consistent action of the fast (#3), and the slow (#4), along with the big late run we can expect from #8, fills in the rest of the superfecta. A two turn distance will bring fast and slow together at the end, and the slow horse that runs more in the stretch can be depended on to hit the board.

6    Get Stormy       13.00    5.60    3.40
8    Rescue Squad     5.40    3.80
4    Kinsella                3.40             /  3 - Major Marvel

$2 Superfecta  $1,791.40   6-8-4-3

It can be as simple as betting the lowest rating, but the ratings will teach you all of the realities of horse racing that just don't show up in the format of past performances.

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

In this race, as with many of the everyday variety, finding an overlay winner can be as simple as uncovering a "Par" performance in the last race. A 25-1 winner is looked at suspiciously by many handicappers, since they can only compare records at face value. By seeing the race through the lense of ability, even a beginner can see that #7 is the only horse in the field coming off of a "Par" performance - 242/92 = 202/90. In many ways, the past performance handicapper is restricted by his/her knowledge. This becomes an advantage for anyone that can see the race through ability, since the odds are made from past performances at face value.

7    Groovy Music    Boyce Forest      122    52.40    18.40     13.80
8    Opening Movement    Russell Sheldon      122        7.60     5.60
5    G Man Joe    Pino Mario G.    122             7.80     /  1A - Big Pete


$1 Superfecta    $3,533.20         7-8-5-1     $9,517
$2 Trifecta    $3,744.00        7-8-5      $37,819

7th Race - Laurel Park - Friday, February 11th, 2011

Conditions: Claiming, $12,000, Open 4 yo's & up, 1M, Dirt, Another one of the more common variety.

Here, we can use what we've learned from previous everyday races at Laurel, to continue winning at Laurel, and all other horse racing tracks. By bringing all the entrants to Par ES, we can see how easily the race lines up with the numbers. This is a technique that I explain in detail in "Winning with Ability-X Ratings", as you can see, it is quite revealing. By doing this, we get a finish order of 4,3,6,7,1 - 5,9,8. I have set the "Low ES/High Rating" horses aside as a separate group so that we can think about this race along the lines of what we know. The things that Ability-X Ratings have taught us about horse racing, day after day, over and over, for the past 3 years.

1. The lower rating is better, at Par ES

2. The lower rating can be well hidden.

3. Fast and slow will set the pace today, and likely get closer to each other through the stretch.

4. The Ability-X Rating, the "Run" number, always reflects a horses run, always.

5. A "high rating/low ES" horse will mess up your superfecta combo... every time.

6. High, Par, and lower than Par run ratings with low ES last, are most likely to "get up in there" today, and the high ES last, might not be able to. High ES last is the likely limit, and therefore, less likely to be duplicated today. Low ES last can easily improve vastly today, even with a half-vast idea for a sharper start.

7. High run / low ES last, and high run / within range of Par ES are the most likely stretch runners today. Bet on it, if you bet (Ex, Tri, Super) exotics.

All of that means that the most likely of the back end group 5,9,8, to crash the exacta/trifecta/superfecta party at the wire today is #9. The original chart shows us that #9 can run 241 @91 ES. The race from January above tells us that this is in the "winners" range for this class at Laurel. If we gave #8 a pass to 91 ES (120 points in run), he is still at 279 vs. 241. Assessing #5 half of the penalty to run (20 pts run, for each 1 pt ES), 40 pts for 87ES to 91ES, that puts him at 261/91. 227/91 should put #9 in front of them.

#    Horse    Jockey    Weight     Win    Place    Show
4    Longonaguska    Castillo Oliver      124    7.00    4.00     4.40
9    Secret Slide    Paz Robert     120         9.20    6.00
3    Chenoasilver    Acosta J. D.    124             3.20

Also Ran:     6 - Private Notice, 1 - King's Ransom, 8 - Max No Difference, 7 - Jaftjam, 5 - Countthemeatballs

Wager Type    Payoff        Winning Numbers   
$2 Exacta    $54.60        4-9     
$1 Superfecta    $212.30        4-9-3-6     
$2 Trifecta    $174.80        4-9-3