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Ability-X - The rating with meaning. |
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Hi, I'm Jon Luman
"Handicapping is easy, the hard part is consistently betting the right horse. "I said that. |
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Physicality - The other half of the game.
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My interest in horse racing started in 1977, and it took about 4 years for me to learn that much. Through the '80's, I learned how to consistently bet the right horse through discipline and conservatism. Although the root of my analysis method has changed in recent years, I still find that this is the way to apply it to betting situations. I had the opportunity, early on, to learn from a master horseplayer, Charles Berndt Jr., and his lessons still ring true today. I was schooled in S. Florida at Calder, Gulfstream Park, and Hialeah. Where I got experience in dealing with every possible situation that can arise in thoroughbred racing, and effectively analyzing the effects on the outcome. Keeping it simple, and being conservative was the cornerstone that Chuck pointed out to me, and I have built on that ever since. While Beyer and Sartin popularized the complexities of speed and pace, I kept winning by expanding physicality in my game. I guess since class, speed, and pace, handicapping were so well spoken for, I became an ability handicapper figuring that was simply what everyone was after anyway. I promoted simplicity with my 1982 book, "Racing Facts", but it never caught on, complexity seems to have the vast appeal to those who buy books. And, back then, speed and pace handicapping with a racing form and a red ink pen was very complex, when I could get just as much reliable data by watching the warm-ups for 5 minutes. My book was rated a 6 and 1/2 by Phillips though, and that was back when nobody ever got a 9. I remained an ability handicapper, expanding the simple ways to determine ability for many years. In doing that for so many years, I have recently discovered that ability can be measured and rated consistently without getting sidetracked into numerous complex and subjective variables. A move north to Tennessee, forced me to learn new tricks. For the most part, I became an off-track bettor, and many of my simply effective on-track methods became unavailable. I had to learn how to get ability out of past performances only, where it is hidden well, more often then not. The greatest thing I had learned from Chuck Berndt, was how to get the answers for two questions straight from the trainer, without ever talking to him or her. The two questions - "Does your horse have the ability to win today?", if answered with yes, followed by, "Will you make the maximum effort to win today?" The problem became, how to get a reliable answer to the first question, off-track. The second question is still better answered on-track. Being denied the trainers report on his/her horses ability for today's race, I had to replace it with an accurate and reliable measurement from past performances. Seemingly, a daunting task, but my experience helped me, because I knew going in that class, speed, and pace are flawed as the basis of an accurate measurement of overall ability. It took a couple of years, but I find that Ability-X, is the most accurate measurement of overall ability that could be made. It is good enough that I will not tell anyone how the rating is made. But, it has taught me a great deal more about horse racing, and the ratings can do the same for you. That is in addition to giving you a clear picture of ability for any race on the card.
Jon D. Luman |
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