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Ability-X Ratings.... the past performance format that works for you.

Ability... it is what you are betting on.

While all forms of past performance handicapping guess at ability, Ability-X is the ability.

You can also get some instructional examples from Saratoga.

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Finally... a horse racing rating that you can just play.

When you can bet on ability, you will win consistently. There is only one factor that plays a major role in the outcome of every horse race, and it is not speed. It is not time, or luck, or the skill of the horsemen involved. It is the ability of the horse to execute a winning run over today's distance of ground.

While the past performance handicapper always needs a new method, a new angle, or even a new excuse to make the dim prospect of consistent failure shine just long enough... the bettor of ability knows that ability will always come through. Just as it always has. There is no greater constant in this sport.

While the entire horse racing industry works hard every day since 2008, in an effort to prove me wrong, below is what continues to happen on race tracks across America.

 

HorsePlayerU.com - Ability-X Ratings

Wednesday 6/22/2011 - Indiana Downs  - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 200+.

The number in orange is the Ability-X rating "key" horse, and the one in red is the Ability-X "Simple"pick. I usually bet the simple pick.

1st 8.3fD Par 100/90
4    Expect a Bull     21.80

$2 Superfecta     $3,713.00        4-9-7-8

Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

123

8

96

20

219

103

4

93

8

196

124

7

93

4

217

147

3

92

12

239

123

2

92

20

215

127

1

91

5

218

101

9

89

2

190

101

1A

88

5

189

106

6

88

4

194

122

5

86

6

208

2nd 7.5fT Par 175/90
2    Burning Bush     3.20    2.20     2.10
Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

160

4

95

3

255

272

1

94

20

366

239

6

93

4

332

237

7

92

8

329

213

9

88

5

301

192

2

88

4

280

209

5

88

12

297

214

3

84

10

298

3rd 6fD Par 320/97
7    Brother Larry   7.00
Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

398

5

100

12

498

448

4

98

10

546

452

2

97

20

549

433

1

96

20

529

408

7

95

2

503

415

8

95

4

510

409

6

94

6

503

383

3

92

4

475

391

10

90

8

481

407

9

88

15

495

4th 8fT Par 100/85
2    Strong Hold    25.40

$2 Superfecta     $1,390.80        2-5-7-11

Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

75

4

92

5

167

72

12

92

8

164

87

11

91

6

178

131

1

88

15

219

87

5

88

4

175

125

3

85

10

210

109

2

80

4

189

165

7

80

2

245

121

10

0

8

121

5th 6fD Par 320/97
7    Lone Star Cowboy       3.00     2.40    2.60
Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

396

2

102

20

498

317

7

99

2

416

382

6

98

10

480

346

5

98

6

444

316

1

95

4

411

325

4

94

15

419

310

8

92

4

402

353

11

92

20

445

334

3

91

12

425

311

9

90

8

401

295

10

90

20

385

6th 8fT Par 100/85
10    Sir Walter's Oro    71.00    31.40     15.80

$2 Superfecta    $18,820.20         10-4-11-2

Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

144

5

100

8

244

84

10

98

20

182

135

7

97

15

232

168

9

96

8

264

67

6

95

4

162

57

3

91

12

148

80

2

91

2

171

62

8

91

6

153

89

1

88

4

177

104

12

85

20

189

102

4

84

10

186

98

11

84

5

182

7th 6fD Par 320/97
3    Need Money Dad    14.40    7.00     4.00
$2 Pk3  $1,522.20    7-10-3
Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

309

10

95

2

404

318

4

94

20

412

306

2

91

10

397

309

5

91

4

400

316

1

91

6

407

299

7

89

12

388

312

6

88

8

400

246

3

88

5

334

306

8

85

4

391

329

1A

85

6

414

353

9

84

20

437

8th 8fT Par 100/85
3    Lonesome Street   5.00
Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

63

2

93

5

156

71

6

89

4

160

22

1X

89

6

111

32

3

88

3

120

69

1A

88

6

157

29

7

87

4

116

77

1

86

6

163

85

4

85

8

170

120

5

83

4

203

1st & 2nd ML choice  50%

3rd ML choice  18%

4th ML choice  12%

All ML's outside or Longshots   20%


9th 5fD Par 340/97
5    Raiseanothergator       4.80
Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

354

3

94

5

448

295

6

94

2

389

128

2

0

20

128

121

1

0

6

121

108

4

0

8

108

112

1A

0

6

112

118

5

0

4

118

167

7

0

4

167

118

8

0

10

118

10th 5.5fD Par 330/97
3    Dreamin Big   3.00    2.60     2.10
Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

432

5

102

20

534

375

8

100

4

475

409

7

98

12

507

345

2

97

8

442

398

4

97

20

495

289

3

96

2

385

382

1

95

4

477

373

6

90

5

463



2 Simple = $74.00

3 Key = $20.60

A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here. © Jon Luman 2011

jon@HorsePlayerU.com   http://HorsePlayerU.com/lately.htm

 

Also, while many have been waiting, since 2007, for Ability-X Ratings to fall apart, it continues to prove out as the single piece of the horse racing puzzle that the bettor really needs. This is the new record for the "Key" horse, and "Simple" pick.

 

Arlington Park - Wednesday 6/22/2011

5th 6fD Par 320/97


#8    In All Directions  
$155.20    44.40    17.60
3    Big Reward   5.20    4.20

$2 Exacta    $920.60     8-3

Trifecta  $1,874.15   8-3-2

.10 Superfecta    $1,709.54         8-3-2-1

$1 Pick3  $630.10    1-1-8
$1 Pick4 $4,888.30    6-1-1-8
$2 Daily Dbl  $728.60   1-8

Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

344

10

101

15

445

370

2

99

6

469

336

1

96

12

432

358

4

94

20

452

338

7

92

15

430

313

8

91

30

404

363

5

90

4

453

367

12

85

20

452

360

6

85

6

445

206

3

0

3

206

137

9

0

5

137

126

11

0

12

126

Belmont Park - Saturday 6/18/2011

5th 8.5fT Par 100/85


#10   ROCKY WORLD  $159.50   $70.00  $22.40

Run# PST ErlSpd ML Comp

112

10

93

50

205

91

12

90

4

181

66

7

89

4

155

42

2

89

5

131

107

9

86

6

193

146

11

85

20

231

111

8

81

8

192

113

6

80

15

193

128

1

77

15

205

135

3

0

15

135

123

4

0

12

123

Tampa Bay Downs - Sunday 2/20/2011

1st 5.5fD Par 330/97

#8     Drive Me East  
$148.20    68.80     20.60

Run#

POST ErlSpd ML Comp

421

8

96

30

517

498

6

96

30

594

351

2

94

4

445

395

9

93

12

488

388

10

92

6

480

383

4

91

3

474

376

7

90

15

466

384

5

90

8

474

365

3

89

5

454

399

1

88

4

487

When you can bet this constant, it doesn't matter what you know about horse racing or handicapping. You will win anyway. This is why race tracks have an ability expert (racing secretary) on staff.

While you are doing that, you can learn as much as you'd like to about the realities and consistencies of horse racing that will enable you to play it as well as anyone possible could.

 

Gulfstream Park - Friday 1/29/10


1st - 8fD Par 180/90

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

285    4    95    12     380
235    5    94    15    329
316    6    93    20    409
203    8     91    2    294
225    3    90    1.6  315
250    7    87    20   337
215    2     85    6    300
249    1    85    4    334

8    Shady Spot     7.40    3.80     3.00
2    Ruckus N Roll    4.20     3.60
5    Shehaseyesforyou      7.40

$2 Exacta    $28.00        8-2  

3rd - 6.5fD Par 340/94

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

268    6    95     8    363
261    1    94    2     355
270    5    92    4    362
253    2    89     8    342
307    4    87    12  394
306    8    86    6     392
317    3    82    3    399

2    Favorite Flashback      22.00    7.40     5.80
1    B L's Noise      2.60    2.40
4    Comprise             6.40

Ability-X ratings bring the entertainment back to horseracing by providing you with a method of betting intelligently, without wasting time and money in the brain busting guesswork of re-handicapping. With the Morning Line, the handicapping is done.

The lowest rating is a consistent winner, no matter how much you think about it. Handicappers make the odds - ability makes the results.

PARX 1/15/2011

5th - 7fD Par 175/90

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

6    Band of Outsiders      

17.40    6.60    4.00

176

6

94

5

270

197

1

93

20

290

199

4

93

10

292

182

8

93

8

275

174

5

92

6

266

246

7

92

20

338

169

9

91

4

260

201

3

86

2

287

211

2

86

15

297

6th - 6.5fD Par 340/94

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

366

5

102

3

468

328

4

97

2

425

306

6

96

6

402

322

7

96

8

418

325

2

95

10

420

312

3

95

3.5

407

324

1

87

12

411

 

7th - 8fD Par 200/90

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

4    Norman Asbjornson  

30.60    12.00    5.60

65

8

98

5

163

66

5

96

8

162

55

3

95

3

150

92

6

95

12

187

103

7

92

4

195

80

4

92

10

172

115

1

90

20

205

 

8th - 6fD Par 320/97

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

6    Brilliant Sunshine 
13.20    6.80    3.00

3    Indian Legend   
12.60   8.40

$2 Exacta $143.00  6-3 

279

6

100

3

379

299

5

97

5

396

282

2

96

5

378

233

7

96

2

329

274

1

96

12

370

270

3

94

8

364

354

4

93

6

447

The "low" rating is one perspective that you don't have to think about with my Ability-X Ratings. The "par" is another, then the "Simple" pick and "Key" horse are yet two more. These perspectives are consistently influencing every horse race that goes off in North America. You can know nothing about horse racing and/or handicapping, and win with any one of those perspectives. By doing that, you can learn how to analyze the effect of those perspectives on any race and win that much more by understanding and combining them.

This is not another one of grandpa's guesswork handicapping methods. This is a breakthrough in simplified horseplay for anyone and everyone.

 

Laurel Park - 1/22/2011

1st - 5.5fD Par 330/97

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

5    Midas' Secret        3.60     2.10    2.10
1    Tuscany's Prospect           2.20    2.10
$2 Exacta    $7.00        5-1    

321

5

94

2

415

353

2

94

4

447

330

7

94

3

424

424

3

92

10

516

371

1

90

4

461

120

4

0

20

120

118

6

0

15

118

155

1A

0

4

155

2nd - 7fD Par 150/90

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

1    Wild Kay   89.80  18.00    6.00
6    Peacetime Missy      4.60   2.80
$2 Exacta    $381.40        1-6 

150

6

94

4

244

155

2

94

2

249

198

4

92

4

290

175

5

92

5

267

169

1

89

20

258

199

3

86

5

285

3rd -  7fD Par 150/90

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

5    Toe Shoes   3.60    3.20     2.10

$1 Superfecta    $562.60     5-7-3-1 

169

5

97

1

266

204

6

93

4

297

251

2

92

20

343

191

1

92

5

283

204

3

89

6

293

226

4

89

5

315

205

7

87

15

292

4th - 7fD Par 150/90

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

4    Oratoria  3.20    2.40     2.10
$2 Pick 3    $607.80        1-5-4

230

1

98

20

328

167

4

97

2

264

175

5

95

3

270

126

3

90

5

216

132

6

89

6

221

178

2

88

4

266

This 4 race series shows that the Ability-X "run" Rating cuts right through the odds. Past Performance handicappers make the odds... ability makes the results.

The past performance handicapper is taught to juggle all kinds of variable factors, the truth of the matter is that most of them have little to no impact on the results today. When replaced with an accurate measure of ability, even the beginner can plainly see that they carry little weight. The proof hits the board everyday at every race track across America. A 10 - 1 winner surprises thousands of bettors that weighed out hundreds of factors... only to conclude that this horse wasn't "good enough" to win today.

Saratoga 8/16/2010

1st - 8fT Par 100/85

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

6    Trix in the City     37.00    13.00     6.90

55

10

98

6

153

59

11

97

5

156

45

6

94

12

139

53

1

88

15

141

-8

12

88

3

80

69

7

88

12

157

77

9

88

12

165

78

4

86

6

164

42

3

86

3.5

128

64

2

85

4

149

51

5

85

2

136

116

8

82

30

198

2nd - 5.5fD Par 330/97

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

3    Maria's Luck        16.60    5.50    3.40
5    Thatagirl       3.50    2.50

$2 Daily Double    $264.50      6-3    
$2 Exacta    $61.00        3-5

351

3

96

8

447

307

8

94

4

401

277

5

90

8

367

163

1

0

12

163

120

2

0

5

120

144

4

0

4

144

120

6

0

4

120

141

7

0

5

141

3rd - 6.5fD Par 340/94

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

4    Kantharos    2.30    2.10  

$2 Pick 3    $507.00      6-3-4

312

2

100

6

412

251

4

98

1

349

253

1A

96

2

349

322

5

95

12

417

327

1

93

2

420

115

3

0

20

115

If this happened once or twice, here and there, we could think that past performance factors carried some weight with regard to today's race. But, the horses with the "best" and "better" past performances lose 70% of the races on a daily basis. It is time for a past performance format that reveals one thing.

The ability of the thoroughbred to run a distance of ground.

Ability-X is simply an accurate measurement of a horses ability to run a distance of ground. While that is a simple concept, don't let the power of holding it in your hand get past you. With Ability-X Ratings, anyone can learn how the results of horse races come to be. One thing that handicappers still don't know, just check the payoffs at your local track.

What can Ability-X ratings do for you?

This rating points out $130 winners as well as even money favorites. No handicapping angle, or speed rating can do this.

Keeneland 4/20/2008

4th - 6fD   Par 320/97                     

#/POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp

327  5    97  30  424
328  10  96  2.5 424

308  9    95  6   403
322  7    94  15  416
304  6    93  10  397

147  1    0  12   147
137  2    0  15   137
156  3    0  6     156
295  4    0  5     295
131  8    0  15   131
238  11  0  4     238

5    Horticulture       $130.20    45.80     13.20

This is because Ability-X Ratings are based on the true consistencies of horse racing that are at play in every race, every distance, and in every class. All day long, at every track in the world.

Study of Ability-X ratings, and results of horse races, will teach you more about horse racing then all of the books ever written about handicapping.

The simple proof is, that after decades of handicapping books being written and read, there are still $130, $80, $75, $65, $40, $32, $23, and $5.60 winners for Ability-X ratings to point out.

Monmouth Park - 7/25/2010

4th - 6fD Par 320/97

#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

9    No Fret     205.60    80.20    27.60

378

11

100

4

478

307

6

100

4

407

341

9

98

15

439 = 321/97

472

3

98

10

570

334

7

98

3

432

392

2

97

30

489

333

4

96

15

429

309

10

96

12

405

357

1

96

20

453

317

8

93

12

410

369

12

93

30

462

274

5

92

6

366

This race is a good example of the power of the Ability-X "Par".

It also shows that "ability" is consistently outside the scope of

Past Performance handicapping, or at best, "ability" is often well

hidden within the obsolete format of Past Performance handicapping.

If we order the top 6 horses in this race according to the Ability-X Par,

we have:


#9 = 321/97
#8 = 317/97
#7 = 314/97
#10 = 309/97
#5 = 274/97
#6 = 247/97
We get an actual finish order of:

#9    $205.60    80.20    27.60
#10  $26.00     11.60
#6    $3.00
#8  $2 Exacta    $2,480.00    9-10
#5  $1 Superfecta    $143,424.60  9-10-6-8
#11

 

With consideration to the realities of horse racing, Ability-X is the most consistently accurate rating that is offered anywhere, at any price. Take a look at this recent compilation of 6f races.

Just playing a single perspective is the key to winning with Ability-X ratings. The ratings themselves, and the use of them will teach you quickly and completely.

This does contrast quite sharply with the viewpoint of those that have been doing past performance handicapping for many years, but then those guys have been betting the chalk with crossed fingers for that whole time too. While never learning anything better.

Win without thinking, an accurate rating makes all things possible.

Using Ability-X Ratings IV

Will explain how to best use Ability-X ratings to make consistently profitable wagering decisions.

Read it... Save it

Ability... it is what you are betting on.

 

Copyright © Jon D. Luman 2007- 2011